Consumer heterogeneity in the longer-term effects of price promotions

While a significant literature has emerged recently on the longer-term effects of price promotions, as inferred from persistence models, there is very little if any attention paid to whether such longer-term effects vary across different types of consumers. This paper takes a first step in that direction by exploring whether the adjustment, permanent, and total effects of price promotions, and the duration of the adjustment period, differ between consumers segmented based on their usage rates in a product category and their loyalty to a brand. We also investigate whether such consumer segmentation will improve the forecasting performance of persistence models at both product category and brand levels. Expectations are developed based on consumer behavior theory on various effects of price promotions, such as the post-deal trough, the mere purchase effect, the promotion usage effect, and responsiveness to competitor's reactions. Evidence from household-level supermarket scanner data on four product categories is provided. We find substantial differences between consumer segments and provide insights on how managers can increase the longer-term effectiveness of price promotions by targeting each consumer segment with a different promotion program. In addition, consumer segmentation is found to significantly improve the forecasting performance of the persistence model for two of the four product categories. For the other two product categories, consumer segmentation provides forecasting performance similar to that obtained from aggregate-level persistence models.     

Retention of latent segments in regression-based marketing models

Product design and marketing mix decisions for segmented markets depend crucially on the correct specification of marketing models used as input to these decisions. With real-world data, the true number of segments in a market is unknown. Current evidence from simulation studies suggests that the accuracy of commonly used criteria for determining the number of segments in a market depends on the usage context, including the type of distribution being used to describe the data, the model specification, and the characteristics of the market. This study investigates via simulation the performance of seven segment retention criteria used with finite mixture regression models for normal data. This is one of the most important analysis contexts in marketing research since regression models are used, for example, in conjoint analysis and market response analysis, yet no previous study in either the marketing or statistics literatures explores the segment retention problem for mixture regression models. The study shows that one criterion, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) with a per-parameter penalty factor of 3 (AIC3), is clearly the best criterion to use across a wide variety of model specifications and data configurations, having the highest success rate and producing very low parameter bias. Currently, this criterion is rarely, if ever, used in the marketing literature.     

Cooperation in collective action*

The ability to cooperate in collective action problems – such as those relating to the use of common property resources or the provision of local public goods – is a key determinant of economic performance. In this paper we discuss two aspects of collective action problems in developing countries. First, which institutions discourage opportunistic behaviour and promote cooperation? Second, what are the characteristics of the individuals involved that determine the degree to which they cooperate? We first review the evidence from field studies, laboratory experiments, and cross community studies. We then present new results from an individual level panel dataset of rural workers.     

How important is the financial sector to price indices in an inflation targeting regime? An empirical analysis of the UK and the US

This paper investigates whether there are benefits in terms of higher economic stability from incorporating stock prices into the price index targeted by the central banks. It also looks into the question of whether central banks should use stock prices as a component of the output stability index and how the index can be constructed. An optimization technique is employed to estimate weights for the various sectoral prices. The obtained weights, which depend on sectoral parameters, differ from those used in the construction of the consumer price index, CPI. Using data from the UK and the US, our analysis demonstrates that in comparison to the CPI, our measure of inflation leads to a higher output stability. Thus, in an inflation-targeting monetary policy environment, it is important to adopt a broader inflation benchmark than the CPI for the general macroeconomic stability.     

Diversity goals: Reframing the debate and enabling a fair evaluation

While diversity has enjoyed significant popularity in the corporate world for the last two decades, researchers continue to put forward conflicting results regarding the business benefits of workplace diversity. Some say workplace diversity is good for businesses; others argue it is an undertaking full of challenges; and yet others assert that it doesn’t really matter. With this in mind, we attempted to synthesize the research that evaluates the impact of workplace diversity on the organizational bottom line. We find an over-emphasis on demonstrating the business case of diversity in economic denominations, which—to some extent—has limited our understanding of the complex dynamics associated with diversity. We identify a lack of attention toward institutional forces as one of the reasons that has restricted our focus on mere economic gains. Overall, we recommend broadening our definition of goals that organizations have when adopting diversity initiatives by including ‘gain of legitimacy’ and ‘creation of goodwill’ as part of the essential consequences of diversity programs.     

Multi-stage purchase decision models: Accommodating response heterogeneity, common demand shocks, and endogeneity using disaggregate data

The most comprehensive models of purchase behavior for frequently purchased supermarket items explain households' purchase incidence decisions (whether to buy), brand choice decisions (what to buy), and purchase quantity decisions (how much to buy). In this study, we develop a three-stage purchase incidence/brand choice/purchase quantity model for household-level data in which all three stages are specified with (i) random coefficient distributions for model covariates and (ii) random effect distributions to account for unobserved factors affecting demand (known as common demand shocks), while also (iii) controlling for the effects of endogeneity on prices. Compared to current state-of-the-art models for multi-stage purchase decisions, the results show improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy when purchase behaviors are modeled with all of these components in combination. Perhaps more importantly, when common demand shocks are ignored, substantial differences in parameter estimates and diagnostic information about consumer behavior are likely (median differences in parameter estimates are 10% and 20% in two product categories), which impact managerial deliberations about price and promotion policies. Further, failure to account for common demand shocks affects the mean and variance of random coefficient distributions in unpredictable directions, which could produce results that encourage managers to pursue inappropriate and costly micro-level product marketing strategies.     

The role of outsourcing in driving global carbon emissions

Globalisation has narrowed the gap between producers and consumers of goods and services. The linkages between international trade and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have started to be recognised, yet the extent of outsourcing of emissions across nations is unknown. Filling this gap in knowledge is critical for designing effective policy mechanisms for assigning responsibility for reductions in emissions. Here we present a structural decomposition analysis of global trends in outsourcing of emissions from 1990 to 2010 for 186 individual countries. To this end, we disaggregate total CO₂ emissions for each country into contributions from the domestic economy and international trade. This allows us to unveil outsourcing trends for all nations confirming a world-wide shifting of emissions-intensive production across borders. We categorise nations into “outsourcers” – countries that outsource carbon-intensive production to so-called contractor nations. Our detailed assessment of the commodity content of global outsourcing flows reveals interesting insights about the trade of carbon-intensive commodities.     

Gender diversity in academic publishing—comment on Galak and Kahn (2021)

Marketing Letters - Galak and Kahn (Marketing Letters, 2021) report that females and underrepresented minorities face a less favorable organizational climate within academic marketing as compared...